REPORT 4 @ The Sugarmoney_Dotcom Mei 2002.
28 Mei 2002: Index Composite = 761.30 marks. .
The Malaysian economy gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2nd Quarter, year 2002 has announced by Bank Negara. The GDP growth is 1.1%. This is a positive growth after technical recession in Quarter 3 & 4, year 2001. .
KLCI has performed good in 1st Quarter although economy has performed slow. KLCI has increased by more 30% compare to end-Dis, 2001 level of 696.09 points.
Technically, Compo...
REPORT 4 @ The Sugarmoney_Dotcom Mei 2002.
28 Mei 2002: Index Composite = 761.30 marks. .
The Malaysian economy gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2nd Quarter, year 2002 has announced by Bank Negara. The GDP growth is 1.1%. This is a positive growth after technical recession in Quarter 3 & 4, year 2001. .
KLCI has performed good in 1st Quarter although economy has performed slow. KLCI has increased by more 30% compare to end-Dis, 2001 level of 696.09 points.
Technically, Composite index Major-trend has moved volatile after Asia-economy-crisis of 97. A big downmove in 1998 which devaluation of Composite index of more than 1000 points to around 200 point level, has made Composite index volatile before reaching the fair-value. Is believed, the Composite index is still volatile but relatively stabile compare to Composite index volatility in 1998 to 2000. Technically, the Composite index is synchronous with economy performance.
Shorterm (Minor Trend) KLCI-OUTLOOK dated 30052002: Stochastic shows Composite index is oversold (below 30), and will make a rebounce. But the rebounce is believed to be temporary. The longer term outlook is, the Composite index will down more to lower. World political issues, mainly a war threaten between two nuclear-weapon countries, India-Pakistan will make World stock indices lower.
Major Trend KLCI-OUTLOOK dated 30052002: Major trend for KLCI is still bullish. The current downward of minor-trend is believed as correction. The Composite Index will move up again after the correction phase.
Composite index will achieve 900 points at the end of 2002? I personally have written a possibility of Composite index reaching 900 points level on end-Disember, 2002. Read the previous comments. Recently, many worldwide analysts have shown a similar view for Composite index. Foreign analyst from Merryl Lynch, Morgan Stanley etc, have view a possiblility of Composite index to reach 910 to 930 points at the end of year 2002.
I personally have changed my mind. I believe, Composite index will not reach 900 points level this year! It is impossible!.
From my calculation, the Composite index will go higher than 890 points if the GDP growth exceed 5%(Too optimistic!).
Below is the table for possible Composite index level:
Msia GDP growth (0%) - KLCI (740 points),
Msia GDP growth (3%) - KLCI (810 points),
Msia GDP growth (4%) - KLCI (850 points),
Msia GDP growth (5%) - KLCI (890 points).
Thank You.
